Working paper by the by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), December 2024.
While the island of Ireland has already experienced extreme temperatures and floods in recent years, it is also exposed to cross-border and cascading risks triggered by climate change impacts beyond its borders. Until recently, these so-called transboundary climate risks have largely been neglected in the scientific and political discourse on climate change adaptation. Adaptation to climate impacts has usually been framed as a local concern and regarded as matter for vulnerable countries in the Global South. Yet in recent years there has been a rude awakening among governments and businesses as global supply chains have been increasingly disrupted by heatwaves, droughts, storms and floods, and geopolitical events. The fact that transboundary climate risks are going to increase over time has serious repercussions for social cohesion, the economy and environment on the island of Ireland.
This new study by the SEI is a comprehensive assessment of transboundary climate risks to the Island of Ireland in three specific areas:
- Agriculture and food security
- Trade and infrastructure
- Biophysical systems.
The report identifies and assesses 17 transboundary climate risks in these areas with potentially serious ecological, economical and societal repercussions for the island of Ireland. While it is not a comprehensive risk assessment, it uses an assessment methodology based on likelihood and magnitude to rank the severity of risk. The authors also describe the policy landscape relevant to each identified risk and provide a wide-ranging set of recommended actions and policy considerations.
Transboundary climate risks to agriculture and food security
The study identified three transboundary climate risks relating to agriculture and food security. The risk of cost-of-living crises and reduced food affordability, due to the impacts of climate change on agriculture supply chains globally, is rated most severe among the three. However, the study also found there to be a moderate risk to nutrition security caused by volatile supply chains for fresh fruit and vegetables, which would disproportionately affect low-income and vulnerable households. Climate-related disruptions to supply chains for animal feed were also found to present a moderate risk to Ireland’s dairy and beef sectors, with implications for farming and food sector jobs and export revenues.
Transboundary climate risks to infrastructure and trade
Due to Ireland’s high dependence on international trade, and the prominent role of global finance in the Irish economy, the island faces moderate risk particularly to critical raw materials supply chains and foreign direct investments. The lack of economic diversification renders Ireland particularly vulnerable to these transboundary climate risks; public policies that support greater industrial specialization are likely to make things worse. Another sector that is highly vulnerable to climate-related supply chain disruption is the energy sector. Additionally, disruptions caused by climate change to supplies of medicines and other pharmaceutical inputs also present a high risk to trade. The island of Ireland faces moderate risk from shortages of essential medicines and other drugs, which could be particularly dangerous if coinciding with pandemic outbreaks.
Transboundary climate risks to biophysical systems and ecosystem services
Climate change is causing dramatic geographical shifts in the distribution of plant and animal species The risk to the island’s ecosystem and biodiversity was found to be of greatest severity. The impacts of invasive species and infectious diseases on productivity in the agriculture, aquaculture and fishery sectors were assessed as posing moderate risks. This is due to high potential costs, given the importance of these sectors to the islands’ economies. Such dynamics are also likely to pose a threat to the forestry sector. The transboundary consequences of increased infectious disease proliferation were also found to present a moderate risk to public healthcare systems on the island of Ireland, particularly if coupled with medicine shortages.
Existing policy landscape and actions needed
Both jurisdictions on the island acknowledge transboundary climate risks in their national risk assessments and adaptation frameworks. However, current policies and practices are inadequate and there is a major gap in understanding what is at stake. Even more worryingly, the ownership of risks resulting from transboundary climate impacts is unclear: it tends to fall beyond the remit of most traditional “adaptation” actors, and yet it is not sufficiently claimed by anyone else. There is too much complacency around adaptation. Some transboundary climate risks are assumed to be a matter for the private sector exclusively, for example many risks related to supply chains. In other cases, higher tiers of governance are assumed to be responsible, for example in Brussels or London.
In response to the transboundary risks and the current policy landscape, the SEI’s key recommendations are divided into four categories:
Strategic risk governance
- Systemic and cascading climate and non-climate risks should be more clearly accounted for. Meanwhile, future climate risk assessments should explicitly assess transboundary climate risks and identify response options. These assessments should clearly assign owners for each transboundary climate risk identified.
- A comprehensive economy-wide assessment should be commissioned to quantify the economic costs of transboundary climate risk to the Irish economy, including supply chain risks.
Mainstreaming
- Relevant government departments should adopt responsibility to lead a broad resilience agenda that includes strategic preparedness, resilience-building and adaptation functions across government for all types of climate and non-climate risks.
- These departments should also adopt an integrated top-down approach to assess the interdependence of risks, ensure policy coherence (e.g. with industrial strategies) and enhance institutional capacity to engage with foresight and horizon scanning exercises.
Resourcing
- Government departments should allocate greater resources for adaptation to help monitor and manage domestic and transboundary climate risks and their interplay with other risks.
- Government departments, on both sides of the border, should explore an Investment Fund for Resilience and Industrial Transition and explore options to create market incentives for private sector investments in strategic redundancies that benefit society.
Collaborating
- Relevant government departments should initiate a dialogue with industry actors to clarify responsibilities on the risk management of overseas supply chains, share data risk exposure in key sectors and strategic investment.
- Relevant government departments should actively engage in adaptation processes and political dialogues on trade, infrastructure, biodiversity and development to support resilience building throughout the international networks upon which Irish prosperity depends.
These are extracts from a working paper commissioned by the Climate Change Advisory Council, Ireland and written by Mikael Allan Mikaelsson, Katy Harris and Magnus Benzie. The full report can be accessed via the link here.