Fact Sheet published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), April 2025.
South Sudan, one of the least peaceful countries in the world, faces a complex crisis where climate change, conflict, and socio-economic vulnerabilities are deeply interconnected. This fact sheet examines how climate variability exacerbates security risks, increases displacement, and affects food security, emphasizing the urgent need for integrated policy responses.
Climate Change and Environmental Trends:
The report presents key climate data, showing a steady rise in surface air temperatures from 1951 to 2020. Projections for 2039, based on climate models, indicate an increase in mean surface air temperature to between 28.2°C and 28.8°C. Additionally, precipitation patterns are expected to fluctuate, with projections ranging from 994.89 mm to 1273.00 mm, suggesting both potential droughts and extreme rainfall events. These climatic changes are likely to impact agriculture, water availability, and livelihoods, deepening vulnerabilities in South Sudan’s rural and urban communities.
Conflict, Displacement, and Resource Scarcity:
Climate change has intensified resource scarcity, particularly for water and fertile land, fuelling intercommunal violence. South Sudan already hosts a significant population of internally displaced persons (IDPs), and climate-related disasters further drive forced migration. The struggle for diminishing resources has led to localized conflicts, with tensions escalating among pastoralist and farming communities.
Food Security and Humanitarian Crisis:
The report highlights alarming levels of food insecurity, with South Sudan categorized under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) as facing acute malnutrition risks. Disruptions in agricultural production due to erratic weather patterns, combined with ongoing conflict and economic instability, have pushed millions into crisis. The humanitarian situation remains dire, necessitating urgent interventions to improve food security and bolster resilience against climatic shocks.
Governance, Institutional Capacity, and Regional Cooperation:
Weak governance structures, compounded by political instability, hinder effective climate adaptation and conflict resolution efforts. The report underscores the importance of strengthening institutional capacity to implement climate-sensitive policies and peacebuilding measures. The role of regional organizations, such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), is emphasized in fostering cooperative efforts to address cross-border environmental and security issues.
Recommended Actions:
To address the complex nexus of climate, peace, and security in South Sudan, the report outlines several key recommendations:
- Integrating Climate Adaptation and Peacebuilding: UNMISS and partner agencies should link local peace agreements with climate adaptation initiatives to ensure community-driven, sustainable solutions.
- Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction: Regional collaboration with IGAD and the Climate, Peace, and Security Hub should enhance early warning systems and conflict-sensitive disaster management.
- Enhancing Food Security Responses: Sustainable agricultural policies and emergency relief programs should be expanded to address food shortages and improve resilience against climate shocks.
- Building Institutional Capacity: Strengthening governance structures to support climate-sensitive policy implementation is crucial for long-term stability.
South Sudan’s future depends on integrated efforts that address climate change, conflict, and socio-economic vulnerabilities simultaneously. Without proactive measures, the situation risks further deterioration, making it essential for national and international stakeholders to act decisively in promoting resilience and stability.
This publication is based on extracts from a fact sheet written by Kheira Tarif, Dr Minoo Koefoed, Dr Simone Bunse, Katongo Seyuba, Dr Thor Olav Iversen, Ingvild Brodtkorb and Jules Duhamel. The fact sheet was published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in collaboration with the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), April 2025. To read the full sheet along with all of its findings, follow the link here.
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