Report published by the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, March 2025.
Recent academic literature identifies two primary pathways through which climate change— driven by rising temperatures and climate-related events like droughts and floods—can contribute to conflict: direct and indirect pathways. The direct pathway links rising temperatures to higher aggression, which may escalate interpersonal violence such as crime. It also connects climate-induced scarcity of resources such as water and arable land to intergroup conflict due to increased competition for these vital resources.
The indirect pathway highlights how climate change exacerbates economic hardship and migration, heightening social tensions and potentially leading to political unrest, communal violence, or even civil conflict and civil war. Climate-induced economic disruptions, such as crop failures, food insecurity, and stagnating economic growth, can fuel rebellion, increase inequality, and erode government capacity, raising the risk of conflict. Conversely, strong institutions can mitigate these risks. Climate change is also expected to drive large-scale migration flows, potentially straining resources, increasing job competition, and deepening social divisions—factors that could spark conflict in the receiving areas, usually urban settings. While some studies link climate-induced migration to large-scale armed conflicts like the Syrian civil war, others suggest that migration may primarily amplify existing tensions and lead to political unrest, such as protests. Micro-level research suggests that migrants—particularly those who have experienced both short- and long-term climate events, such as floods and droughts, at their place of origin—are more likely to participate in political unrest advocating for migrant rights in their new urban environments.
In conclusion, while climate change is not the primary driver of conflict, it can exacerbate conflict risks, particularly in regions with weak governance, high inequality, and political instability. As extreme weather events become more frequent, the risk of conflict is likely to rise, driven by their effects on economic stability, agriculture, and migration. To mitigate these risks, strengthening political institutions, fostering social cohesion, and effectively managing migration will be crucial.
These are extracts from a report written by Dr. Vally Koubi, March 2025. To read the full report and its key findings, follow the link here.