This is a Preliminary Assessment by the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War, February 2025.
This assessment analyses greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine over three years (24 February 2022 – 23 February 2025). It calculates emissions directly attributable to the war, covering military operations, infrastructure destruction, landscape fires, and civilian displacement. Total war-related emissions are estimated at 230 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e)—comparable to the combined annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia.
Key Findings of the Assessment Include:
Warfare as the Largest Source of Emissions:
Warfare activities, including fuel consumption by military vehicles, ammunition use, and fortification construction, account for 82.1 MtCO₂e (36%). The continued use of tanks, fighter jets, and artillery shells has driven emissions upward. While drone usage has increased, it has not replaced the need for carbon-intensive artillery and explosives.
Landscape Fires Worsened by Conflict and Climate Change:
In 2024, war-induced fires more than doubled, increasing from 38,300 hectares in the first two years to 92,100 hectares in 2024 alone. This led to a 113% rise in emissions, adding 25.8 MtCO₂e, for a total of 48.7 MtCO₂e. Unusually dry conditions, likely linked to climate change, intensified these fires, creating a vicious cycle where war and global warming reinforce each other.
Destruction of Energy Infrastructure
The deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure has resulted in 19.0 MtCO₂e (8%) in emissions. Major contributors include:
- Sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines: 14.0 MtCO₂e
- Attacks on oil depots and refineries: 3.1 MtCO₂e
- Release of SF₆ gas from damaged electrical equipment: 1.1 MtCO₂e (SF₆ is 24,000 times more potent than CO₂).
Reconstruction of Infrastructure and Public Buildings:
Destruction of civil infrastructure has generated 62.2 MtCO₂e (27%). While the most intense destruction occurred early in the invasion, frontline urban centres remain heavily damaged, particularly in eastern Ukraine. Although emissions from reconstruction are increasing at a slower pace than initial destruction, the long-term carbon cost of rebuilding remains significant.
Impact of Displacement:
Refugee movements have contributed 3.3 MtCO₂e (2%) over three years. However, by 2024, displacement had stabilized, with minimal additional emissions as most refugees remained in host countries or gradually returned, reducing their overall environmental impact.
Civil Aviation Emissions:
War-related airspace closures over Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus have forced commercial flights to take longer routes, increasing fuel consumption and emissions. Over the three years, this has resulted in an additional 14.4 MtCO₂e (6%), as rerouted flights require extended travel times and higher fuel usage.
Using a social cost of carbon of $185 per tonne, climate-related damages exceed $42 billion, highlighting the massive environmental and economic toll of the war. These findings emphasize the urgent need for accountability, sustainable reconstruction, and climate mitigation efforts.
These are extracts from a preliminary assessment published by the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War in collaboration with Center for Environmental Initiatives Ecoaction, February 2025. The full assessment and it's key findings can be accessed via the link here.