The Central African Republic (CAR) is highly exposed to the impacts of climate change due to socioecological vulnerabilities and ongoing insecurity. Drivers of vulnerability include the absence of state authority, natural resource mismanagement, and low household and community resilience.
A changing climate and the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel and the Great Lakes region have driven transhumant pastoralists further into CAR earlier in the transhumance season, creating tensions. Additionally, the spillover effects of the war in Sudan have put added pressure on the humanitarian situation in CAR.
Climate-related peace and security risks
Livelihood deterioration
- Despite its rich agricultural land and natural resources, CAR is one of the most food-insecure countries globally. In July 2024, around 2.5 million people were facing severe food insecurity due to armed conflict, forced displacement, rising food prices, low agricultural productivity and climate-related disasters such as flooding.
- The inadequate or extremely fragile infrastructure in many places in CAR renders it vulnerable to climate-related constraints (e.g. heavy rainfall and river flooding). This poses challenges to the effective delivery of humanitarian assistance and to actors like MINUSCA in accessing affected communities.
RECOMMENDED ACTION Together with the CAR government, UN agencies, relevant partners and local organizations should prioritize climate-resilient development, focusing on building up a robust infrastructure, resilient agricultural practices, livelihood and food security, and disaster preparedness.
Migration and mobility
- The effects of climate change, combined with factors such as insecurity and a changing demographic landscape in West and Central Africa, are putting increasing pressure on existing traditional transboundary transhumance routes, with major implications for CAR.
- Increasing unregulated transhumance into CAR poses risks to protected areas and biodiversity conservation, as growing pastoralist activity due to mobility constraints or loss of resources elsewhere can lead to overgrazing, the exploitation of forest resources and poaching; this, in turn, results in environmental degradation.
RECOMMENDED ACTION MINUSCA and other partners should continue to assist the government in implementing the agreed priority actions, such as strengthening the security of transhumance corridors, bolstering conflict prevention and promoting cross-border dialogue. International and regional actors should support these efforts by mobilizing financial and technical assistance and facilitating regional negotiations on transboundary transhumance.
Military and armed actors
- The security situation in CAR remains volatile, due to violent clashes among armed groups, mercenaries and bandits, particularly around mining sites, transhumance corridors and border areas.
- Although the Central African Armed Forces (FACA), with support from MINUSCA and other allies, have recaptured much territory since 2019, armed actors continue to seek control over transhumance corridors and mining sites to generate revenue in rural areas.
RECOMMENDED ACTION MINUSCA should continue to support the government in securing transhumance activities and reducing violence in certain hotspots, particularly around transhumance corridors, border areas and mining sites. Moreover, peacebuilding efforts need to specifically incorporate environmental and climate considerations.
Political and economic exploitation and mismanagement
- Mismanagement, corruption, poor state capacity and stressed public finances pose challenges for effective and inclusive governance in CAR. This has prevented CAR from fully leveraging its resources and is hampering socio-economic development.
- Although there is limited research on the interlinkages between political and economic exploitation, natural resource mismanagement and climate change in CAR, research from neighbouring countries suggests that state fragility, fragmented patronage systems and corruption increase grievances among populations facing multiple challenges.
RECOMMENDED ACTION UN agencies, MINUSCA, UNOCA, ECCAS and other relevant partners should support and facilitate the process of integrating conflict-sensitive climate adaptation into CAR’s first national plan for development and help secure adequate funding for the implementation of adaptation activities.
These are extracts from a factsheet published by NUPI and SIPRI in October 2024. It analyses the situation in the country by dividing it into several risk clusters that emphasize the link between climate change and insecurity in the country. The full factsheet can be accessed through the link here.