Climate change is often described as a ‘threat multiplier’ that intensifies human insecurity and can thus lead to conflicts as well as migration. The interconnections between climate change, conflict and migration are complex and dynamic, however, with no simple line of causality.
Climate and other environmental factors cannot be isolated from the many social, economic and political factors that, together, can spur conflicts and/or lead people to migrate. Climate change clearly does compound pre-existing vulnerabilities, however, and migrants and people in conflict-affected areas are often among the most vulnerable to climate impacts.
These complexities are very evident in Asia, where conflict situations are widespread, and where social and economic inequalities, persecution, and human rights violations coincide with a high exposure to climate impacts and disaster risks. Indeed, Asia is the most disaster-prone region in the world, and it has experienced more climate-related displacement than anywhere else, mainly around extreme events.
This study examines the nexus between climate change, migration and conflict within Asia, with particular attention to Afghanistan, Myanmar and Bangladesh – the three Asian countries where the Danish Refugee Council is currently active – as well as the experiences of Afghans in Pakistan, Iran and Turkey, and of Rohingya people in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. The aim to provide insights for policy-makers, international organisations, humanitarian groups and others who wish to reduce human suffering and achieve more just outcomes.
Conflict, climate change and compounding vulnerabilities
Afghanistan, Myanmar and Bangladesh have different geographies, histories and social and political make-ups, but in all three countries, conflict dynamics are embedded in structures of social discrimination, which often result in violence against minorities. Poverty is also widespread in all three countries, and a lack of institutional and state support, entrenched social inequalities, and heavy dependence on agriculture make livelihoods particularly vulnerable to climate change. Misguided development projects and land grabs by businesses and political elites further deprive local people.
In those contexts, climate change impacts – from gradual changes in rainfall, to extreme weather events – can overwhelm individuals and communities. That, in turn, can intensify tensions over natural resources, and it can also displace people or encourage them to migrate – though some of the most vulnerable populations, including many Rohingyas in Myanmar, cannot move at all. This is a major protection gap that requires more attention.
On the move and at their destinations, migrants face new risks. Marginalised and often denied any legal status or access to services, many live in hazard-prone areas – in camps or in urban slums – where they are exposed to flash floods, landslides and other hazards. Tensions with host communities over scarce resources and fragile systems of protection are also common. Refugees and asylum-seekers living in cities may also be isolated from humanitarian assistance systems; this is the case for many Afghans in protracted refugee or irregular situations in Iran and Turkey, for instance.
An intersectional lens reveals that social identities such as gender, age, ethnicity and class play key roles in shaping people’s experiences with climate change, migration and conflict. Members of ethnic minorities are particularly likely to be marginalised, excluded from social protections, and even subjected to violence. Discriminatory policies and social norms sharply limit the mobility of Afghan and Rohingya women and girls and limits how much they can protect themselves from climate and disaster risks. Rohingya women and girls are also particularly exposed to violence during and after disaster events.
In this context, it is crucial to recognise and harness existing sources of resilience. Local communities across Afghanistan, Myanmar and Bangladesh have strategies they have used for a long time to cope with the challenges of the landscapes where they live: from water scarcity, to flood and landslide risks. As climate change greatly increases the strains on these communities, it is crucial to provide adaptation support that complements local approaches, rather than undermining them – especially for farmers. For those who choose migration as an adaptation strategy, meanwhile, more support for safe and orderly migration – including long-distance and secondary migration – is sorely needed.
A key first step in addressing the issues highlighted by this analysis is to explicitly recognise the climate–conflict– migration nexus in national, regional and global policy instruments. Although some attempts have been madeto address links between climate and migration, and climate change has long been recognised as security issue, substantial, in-depth treatment of the subject in policy has been minimal. This is an important gap to fill – and an opportunity for regional collaboration in particular.
Recommendations for international humanitarian NGOs, UN agencies and donors
Prioritise conflict-affected areas for climate and development interventions: This is undoubtedly challenging, but people in conflict areas desperately stronger support to build their resilience. When appropriately designed and implemented, such interventions could also be tools for peace-building.
Support local and grassroots organisations to scale up local adaptation strategies: This can help ensure more inclusive and context-sensitive interventions and also strengthen the capacities of partners who have the contextual knowledge and access to vulnerable areas needed for interventions to succeed.
Integrate climate–migration linkages at all stages of projects: Recognise that all humanitarian interventions have the potential to either build resilience or undermine it, and carefully design projects so that they contribute to community resilience both during and after crises, including through mobility.
Partner with researchers: Stronger collaboration and coordination between humanitarian organisations and researchers can help ensure that practices on the ground are informed by robust evidence – and that the latest knowledge quickly reaches practitioners. Fund more proactive interventions: Even as they continue to support those in the most urgent need, donors should also support interventions that go beyond traditional emergency work to consider long-term resilience-building in contexts affected by conflict and climate impacts.
Recommendations for policy-makers
Recognise links between climate, conflict and mobility in national climate policies: Afghanistan, Myanmar and Bangladesh have all recognised linkages between climate and migration, but more work is needed. In all three countries, policy instruments still need to address interactions with conflict dynamics.
Foster mutual learning through regular intergovernmental dialogues: Both the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are well positioned to facilitate mutual learning and collaboration through regular intergovernmental dialogues and information-sharing.
Regularise temporary workers and long-term residents: It is important to support migrants so they can access regular migration routes, find safe places to live, obtain decent employment, and access social safety-net programmes. Ensuring the integration of internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees and migrants in adaptation and disaster risk reduction efforts will also be key.
Priorities for further research
Although research on the nexus of climate, migration and conflict has advanced, moving beyond simplistic causal explanations, many knowledge gaps remain. More research is needed to understand the complex mechanisms and feedback loops between conflict, climate change and migration in different contexts. Key areas for further exploration include:
• Intersectionality: An intersectional lens can provide a deeper understanding of the underlying social, political and economic factors that shape migrants’ experiences in the context of conflict and climate change.
• Drivers of secondary migration: More knowledge is needed on how climate impacts, the legal status of migrants and other factors shape patterns of conflict and mobility in transit regions.
• Impact of humanitarian interventions on climate and conflict mitigation: Further research can inform climate- and migration-sensitive humanitarian interventions that support long-term sustainable development.
• Climate interventions for peace-building: It is important to analyse how climate interventions, based on human rights and gender-sensitive approaches, can facilitate peace among communities and ensure greater human security by addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability.
This the executive summary of the report by Stockholm Environment Institute, which is authored by Sara Vigil, Andreea R. Torre and Dayoon Kim. The full report can be found here.