The rush to achieve net zero is driving massive global investments in renewable energy. Surges in energy prices as a result of the conflict in Ukraine make the green transition even more pressing and may further increase the benefits for investors. No one needs a net zero world more than the almost two billion people who live in fragile and conflict-affected places: for them, the climate emergency can be literally a matter of life or death. And many of these places have huge potential for green transition investments, whether in energy sources such as solar, hydro or wind, or as vital sources of the minerals on which green technologies rely. But green energy projects can cause or exacerbate conflicts and tensions, nowhere more so than in the world’s most fragile areas. If investments are not done right, there is a significant risk of the world’s green transition coming at the expense of higher levels of conflict and suffering.
The need for a global transition to green energy is acute. At COP26, world leaders agreed to urgently accelerate climate action and reaffirmed their intention to keep global temperature rises within 1.5 degrees. This can only be achieved through concerted effort and if all countries deliver on their commitments. The current fossil fuel price shocks felt around the world provide additional impetus to the drive for green energy technologies. Such investments have risen hugely over the past decade, with massive investments in solar, wind, geothermal, hydro and mineral mining operations. Meanwhile, the demand for so-called green minerals, such as cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements, is growing at an unprecedented rate, due to their vital role in the production of wind turbines, electric vehicles and energy storage. Solar power mineral demand is predicted to increase 300% by 2050.
Significant reserves of green minerals exist in fragile or conflict-affected situations, such as DRC, Afghanistan, Guinea and Guatemala, where governments and mining companies have poor track records for conducting due diligence, respecting human rights and ensuring sensitivity to conflict and the needs of local communities. In addition, wind and solar energy infrastructure projects are linked to human rights violations and the perpetuation of conflicts. This new research commissioned by International Alert, which explores three case studies of renewable energy projects in DRC, Kenya and Morocco, shows how green energy projects in fragile or conflict-affected situations can trigger grievances and prolong conflict.
The report argues that engaging local communities early in project planning discussions, meaningfully and with respect, can help to identify concerns, mitigate potential conflicts, understand the impacts of the proposed energy project on people’s lives and consider alternatives, particularly regarding fair and adequate compensation, land reallocation and ways for sharing the project benefits with local communities. Communities, peacebuilders, investors and other organisations are learning about what works practically, on the ground, to mitigate the risk of conflicts. Initiatives range from standards-setting (such as widely-recognised international and UN principles on human rights due diligence or supply chain regulations) to collective action (such as the Fair Cobalt Alliance). But the actions of investors themselves will often provide the key. Getting this right is good for investors, for local communities and for the green energy transition our world so urgently needs.