This is a report published by the British Ministry of Defence, September 2024.
As the cascading impacts of climate change reshape shared spaces, societal dynamics, and geopolitical stability, climate security is expected to become a critical issue. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, biodiversity loss, and resource competition will reshape shared spaces, societal dynamics, and security worldwide. The following highlights how climate challenges may reshape security and strategic trends by 2055.
The report identifies six global drivers of change that are likely to shape the coming decades. These drivers represent a complex set of dynamics which serve to influence, counteract or accelerate each other, often in unexpected ways.
1. Global power competition. Competition will continue and the balance of power will almost certainly change. Competing actors will include major powers as well as a range of smaller state and non-state actors.
2. Demographic pressures. The global population will continue to grow and age, although the rate of increase will be spread unevenly across the globe. Increasing migration, including to urban areas, and the growth of the global middle-class population will all have an influence.
3. Climate change and pressure on the environment. The effects of climate change will become increasingly evident and more extreme. Increasing demand for resources will place additional pressures on the natural world, including in the shared spaces like Antarctica, space, cyberspace and the ocean.
4. Technological advances and connectivity. The exponential growth in data, storage, automation and artificial intelligence to name a few will have an impact on virtually every area of human life, including international relations.
5. Economic transformation and energy transition. Technological advances will have a huge impact on future economic activity and energy systems. The resources required to enable the digital and energy transition – notably metals and critical minerals – will become of increasing geopolitical importance
6. Inequality and pressure on governance. Global inequality will continue to rise. Growing awareness of inequities, alongside rising migration and demographic change, will put increasing pressure on state and international governance structures and capacity
Thematic Areas of Concern
When it comes to climate security, the report outlines some key areas of concern for the future. These include but are not limited to:
Environment
Climate change will result in more extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, and shifts in rainfall patterns which will disrupt ecosystems, food chains, and water supplies, with some regions facing prolonged droughts or flooding. Expanding human activity and waste production will compound environmental degradation, while global power competition may delay the urgent need for climate action.
Energy
As demand for renewable energy rises, the critical minerals needed are expected to become a source of geopolitical contention. The expansion of nuclear, wind, and solar energy will reduce reliance on fossil fuels but may introduce new environmental and security challenges.
Conflict and Security
The impact of climate change on governments and societies, including potential threats to the territorial integrity of some states, could lead to new and growing security challenges. In an increasingly interconnected world, social, economic, health and technological shocks could rapidly spread and prove major sources of instability.
These are extracts from a report by the British Ministry of Defence, September 2024. Read the full report here.
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