The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation may have begun on 24th February 2022, but it was preceded by the illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by the Russian Federation in February and March 2014 and more than eight years of de facto occupation by the Russian Federation of parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The disastrous human and environmental toll of the war in Ukraine is having seismic geopolitical ramifications, including raising the spectre of catastrophic nuclear war. At the same time, the war is increasing vulnerability to climate change around the world and complicating collective efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This is particularly the case in Ukraine, but it affects all OSCE participating States as well as countries beyond. While the war is an immediate existential threat for Ukraine, climate change is a short-, medium- and long-term threat around the world, particularly for the most vulnerable, including women, children and the poor.
The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of the war on people’s vulnerability to climate change, to understand the cascading security impacts that climate change could precipitate, and to consider what the war means for the prospects for ambitious climate action in Ukraine, in the OSCE area, and globally.
In this war, climate and energy have been weaponised like never before. The invasion triggered unprecedented spikes in global energy prices, which have helped to fuel a cost-of-living crisis that is impoverishing millions. Meanwhile, Russia has cut or halted energy supplies to many countries within the European Union in an effort to sap their military, financial and political support for Ukraine.
Following its failed attempt to capture Kyiv, Russia began attacking energy installations across Ukraine from the beginning of October 2022. In the months since, nearly all large energy facilities across the country have been attacked by missiles or kamikaze drones, with many attacked repeatedly. The clear intent is to destroy the economy, weaponize Ukraine’s harsh winter climate and freeze the population (and the West) into submission.
The course of the war from here will have significant strategic implications for the prospects of the global green transition and many countries’ net zero pledges, potentially worsening the climate crisis in the medium to long term. But much depends on actions from now. Ukraine can rebuild its damaged infrastructure and leapfrog to a cleaner, low emission future.
This paper is an independent experts’ paper for the OSCE, coordinated by Chatham House. The original paper can be found here.
By Oli Brown, Antony Froggatt, Natalia Gozak, Nataliya Katser-Buchkovska, Orysia Lutsevych, James Nixey