On February 9th, the Geological Survey of India announced it had discovered 5.9 million tons of lithium, a metal in high demand for electric vehicle batteries and other low-carbon energy technologies. Though the findings are preliminary, if borne out, the discovery would put India among the world’s top holders of lithium, with significant implications for India’s own electric vehicle (EV) deployment, environmental management, and energy independence. However, the potential reserves’ location in Jammu and Kashmir state—heavily militarized territory disputed by Pakistan—underscores the security challenges associated with critical mineral wealth. These challenges highlight the urgent need to prepare for the potential negative security repercussions of expanded mining in India and elsewhere, including via improved mining governance, new technologies, reduced lithium demand, and conflict resolution.
The article highlights several potential Flashpoints that mining in the region could trigger. These relate to;
1. Economic and Environmental Implications
The development of lithium resources in Kashmir would have lucrative and disruptive implications that could exacerbate existing security challenges. The ariticle points to issues with establishing refining capacity, potential damage to local ecology, and pushback from locals to establishing a heavy mining presence at a time of instability in the region.
2. Internal Tensions
The introduction of lithium exploration to this mix is poised to increase tension within local communities, and between Jammu and Kashmir residents and New Delhi. Given wider economic and political inequities in Jammu and Kashmir, the mining sector’s checkered human rights record, and lithium mining’s consistent prompting of protests elsewhere, the article argues that there is reason to expect lithium mining in Jammu and Kashmir to similarly contribute to communal tensions and animosity toward the central government.
3. Geopolitical Risks
Wider India-Pakistan tensions could also be inflamed by an economic prize in disputed territory, real and perceived repression of Kashmir’s Pakistan-supported Muslim population, and downstream environmental impacts of lithium mining. 5.9 million tons of lithium are worth roughly $300 billion dollars even at current prices—rivaling Pakistan’s annual GDP—giving Islamabad a financial prize to eye in territory it already thinks it should control. Short of that, it would be a valuable Indian asset that Pakistan could hold at risk for leverage. Meanwhile, real and perceived victimization of India’s Kashmir-based Muslim population from the burdens of mining could fuel popular pressure on Islamabad to confront India, as demonstrated by protests in Pakistan over India’s treatment of the region. Long-active anti-Indian militants in the region could use economic grievances to recruit or could target mining interests, perhaps supported by Pakistan or exploiting safe haven in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, echoing the incubation of earlier generations of Kashmir militants.
Finally, lithium mining’s excessive water use and pollution could disrupt shared management of transboundary water resources. India and Pakistan govern the Indus River and its tributaries via the Indus Waters Treaty, which has successfully brokered peaceful cooperation despite past hostilities. Nevertheless, one of the treaty’s six rivers, the Chenab, flows through the prospective mining area and could be impacted by mining’s water use or pollution, affecting downstream Pakistan. This would add to existing tensions over India’s construction for a new upstream dam on the river, already the subject of tense negotiations over the treaty.
Solutions
The article proposes several US led initiatives for how to work for a more robust global governance regime for mining lithium and other critical minerals. These include;
- Standards for community consent
- Benefits sharing
- Human rights protection
- Environmental responsibility, from companies and governments
- Technology transfers
Conclusion
India’s plans for lithium extraction in Jammu and Kashmir are a clear example of the potential security risks that must be managed during the necessary transition to a minerals-intensive low-carbon energy system, but they are just one example. As the world intensifies and expands minerals mining to meet growing demand, conflicts over the local damage and the economic benefits are likely to increasingly follow. Avoiding harmful consequences for human, national, and global security will require not only case-by-case conflict prevention, but a broader push to improve mining governance and minimize demand worldwide.
This article was authored by Tom Ellison and published by the Centre for Climate and Security. To read the full and original article use the link here.