Defence has a carbon problem. The strengthening of net-zero emissions targets in response to the deepening climate crisis is forcing militaries to find answers to the question of how to wield force effectively within the constraints of a net-zero world. This article introduces the concept of ‘low-carbon warfare’ as a means of capturing recent developments, the extent to which they dovetail with existing concerns regarding the business of war in the twenty-first century, and the prospect of significant changes to how militaries operate in the years ahead as the global energy transition unfolds. The article demonstrates that the pursuit of low-carbon warfare will not be easy owing to the practical challenges of transitioning militaries away from fossil fuels. Moreover, low-carbon warfare will not mitigate all the ethical and environmental concerns associated with military deployments up to and including war. It does nevertheless offer a valuable starting point for conceptualizing how militaries are beginning to address their ‘carbon bootprints’ and what this will mean for future operations.
So long as war remains materially destructive, engaging in warfare will continue to carry a high carbon—and environmental—price, especially if the fighting becomes drawn out, and/or existential for one or both sides. This much has been made plain in Ukraine following Russia's attempt at a full-scale invasion in 2022. Low-carbon warfare, then, is not (yet) about the total decarbonization of warfare, or indeed of war. Nor should a concern for low-carbon warfare be confused with a normative impulse to ‘green’ defence or rein in the use of military force. Although such sentiments will continue to form a vital part of debates regarding the climatic and environmental consequences of militarism and war, low-carbon warfare is primarily about how scholars and practitioners contend with the challenges and opportunities that will arise as militaries grapple with the question of how to retain operational capability in a net-zero—or carbon-constrained—world. Whether this leads to greater restraint around the use of war as an instrument of policy, a radical reconfiguration of the military apparatus and/or a transformation of prevailing geopolitical cultures remains to be seen.
The remainder of this article is arranged as follows. The first section situates contemporary military thinking about carbon within the existing scholarship on the military implications of environmental change. It also makes an important distinction between normative efforts to ‘green’ the armed forces and emerging imperatives to decarbonize military operations, which reflect the growing intensity of the climate emergency. The second section draws attention to key political, economic and societal trends that are driving a resurgence of defence interest in ‘low-carbon warfare’ and why military transformation is becoming easier to imagine. The third section demonstrates how the conceptual terrain of the study of military operations, war and warfare can be—indeed, needs to be—expanded to include a regard for the global energy transition and mounting pressures to decarbonize defence. The fourth section advances a tentative research agenda for scholars wanting to grapple with the opportunities and challenges of low-carbon warfare.
The article was originally published in the Journal of International Affairs. It can be view in its entirety using the link here.
The article is authored by Duncan Depledge (@DMDepledge). He is a Lecturer in Geopolitics & Security at Loughborough University. He also leads the School of Social Sciences & Humanities Research Challenge on Sustainable Transitions Under Environment Change (STUEC).
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