This is a report published by the Metis Institute for Strategy and Foresight, 2025.
The National Interdisciplinary Climate Risk Assessment provides a comprehensive analysis of the security risks posed by climate change, focusing on Germany and the global geopolitical landscape. Commissioned under Germany’s National Security Strategy (2023), the report integrates insights from climate science, social sciences, and strategic foresight to assess the risks projected up to 2040. The findings emphasize that climate change is not only an environmental issue but also a critical security challenge with economic, social, and geopolitical ramifications.
Key Findings of the Report Include:
- Escalating Climate Disasters: The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods, will increase significantly, affecting infrastructure, economic stability, and human health in Germany and the EU.
- Economic and Social Strains: Climate change will lead to substantial economic losses, increased adaptation costs, and a decline in productivity. Food security risks due to large-scale crop failures will drive price volatility and food shortages, exacerbating socio-economic inequalities.
- Global Conflict Amplification: Climate-induced resource scarcity, particularly in fragile states, will escalate conflicts over food, water, and land, contributing to political instability, radicalization, and forced migration.
- Security and Defence Challenges: Rising global temperatures will challenge military operations, necessitating new strategies to address climate-related disruptions in personnel deployment, infrastructure sustainability, and geopolitical stability.
- Energy Transition and Geopolitical Risks: While the global shift to renewable energy presents opportunities for economic transformation, it also introduces risks for petrostates reliant on fossil fuel exports. China’s dominance in clean energy markets threatens Germany’s competitive edge, requiring strategic policy responses.
- Climate Policy and International Stability: The failure to meet the Paris Agreement’s targets could erode confidence in multilateral agreements, weakening the international rules-based order and fostering geopolitical rivalries. Unilateral geoengineering interventions pose further risks of international conflict.
- Domestic Policy Dilemmas: Climate policies must balance economic viability, social equity, and political feasibility. Carbon pricing and regulatory measures could fuel populist movements and extremist narratives if social inequalities are not addressed.
The report underscores that climate change is no longer a distant threat but an immediate security crisis with far-reaching implications. Germany must adopt a proactive approach, integrating climate considerations into national security strategies to ensure resilience, stability, and international leadership in climate policy. The urgency of action is paramount, as delayed responses will compound economic, social, and geopolitical risks in the decades ahead.
These are extracts from a report published by the Metis Institute for Strategy and Foresight in collaboration with Bundesnachrichtendienst, 2025. The full report can be accessed via the link here.