This is a report published by the adelphi global, February 2025.
The climate crisis is accelerating, with 2024 marking the first year that global temperatures surpassed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This rapid warming poses direct threats to peace, security, and defence both within the EU and globally, calling for urgent multilateral action.
Following the EU’s adoption of its Joint Communication on the climate and security nexus—which frames climate change and environmental degradation as critical threat multipliers—the inaugural Navigating Peace in a Changing Climate report outlines five key pathways by which climate change intensifies security risks. These pathways illustrate how environmental challenges will continue to intertwine with global security, necessitating decisive EU action.
- Water Governance, Food Pricing, and Natural Resource Management: Climate-driven shortages of water, food, and land are likely to heighten social and political tensions, spark resource conflicts, and disrupt agricultural production. International collaboration in water governance and the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices, such as agroecology, can help mitigate these risks and build resilience.
- Migration, Displacement, and Livelihoods: As climate change disrupts livelihoods and forces human mobility, urban centres face increased pressure that can strain governance and social cohesion. Without investments in infrastructure and robust policy frameworks, rapid urban growth could further exacerbate socio-political tensions. Strengthening rural-urban connectivity and supporting resilient livelihoods are crucial.
- Energy Transition, Decarbonisation Risks, and Critical Minerals: While global efforts to achieve net-zero emissions grow, the path to a just energy transition is complicated by geopolitical challenges and critical mineral dependencies. Developing conflict-sensitive supply chains and inclusive economic policies is essential to prevent new forms of inequality and vulnerability.
- Environmental Degradation, Biodiversity Loss, and Environmental Crime: The feedback loop between ecological decline and security threats is particularly acute in fragile regions, where environmental degradation fuels illicit economies and disproportionately impacts Indigenous Peoples and local communities. Addressing these issues requires integrated policies that combine urban planning, resource management, and measures to combat environmental crime.
- Global Governance, Financial Reform, and Climate Justice: Effective, transparent governance at both national and global levels is fundamental for managing climate risks. Alarmingly, fragile states receive only 33 cents for every dollar allocated for adaptation in other low-income countries, reinforcing a cycle of climate impacts, social fragmentation, and heightened security risks.
Utilising global datasets and case studies, the report identifies 12 trends where climate impacts disproportionately affect vulnerable regions. Since 2008, the EU has been at the forefront of addressing climate-related security risks by integrating climate science, security analysis, and policymaking. This strategic report aims to align EU foreign, development, defence, and security policies with emerging challenges, ensuring that multilateral partnerships and comprehensive policy measures can effectively counter these pressing issues.
These are extracts from a report written by Emma J. Whitaker, Janani Vivekananda and Jakob Gomolka, February 2025. To read the full report, follow the link here.