Fact sheet "How do interconnected dynamics of climate, security and human mobility interplay in Mali: Climate security pathway analysis", published by the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), February 2025.
The Climate Security Pathway Analysis (CSPA) for Mali explores how climate change exacerbates existing socio-economic vulnerabilities and conflict dynamics, driving varied forms of human mobility. Based on a detailed analysis of the Malian context, this factsheet identifies four distinct climate security pathways, each highlighting a unique pattern of risk and response.
Climate-Induced Mobility and Livelihood Risks:
Climate variability has severely impacted Mali’s agrarian-based economy. Erratic rainfall, droughts, floods, and rising temperatures threaten agriculture, livestock, fisheries, and forest resources. Over 76% of farmers report declining yields, with food insecurity rising sharply. Fishing and pastoralist communities face resource depletion due to water scarcity and ecosystem degradation. As a coping strategy, people migrate—seasonally or permanently—towards urban centres or gold mining sites. However, this adaptive movement also exposes migrants to heightened risks:
- Exploitation by armed groups, including recruitment in exchange for food or protection
- Child labour and sex trafficking, especially near gold mining zones
- Toxic exposure, such as mercury poisoning from artisanal mining
Migration, while a strategy for survival, is reshaping human security dynamics and deepening vulnerabilities in the country.
Shifting Transhumance and Escalating Resource Conflicts:
Climate-induced changes in rainfall and temperature alter pastoralist routes and delay transhumance cycles. This has led to:
- Delayed departures and prolonged mobility cycles.
- Increased competition over dwindling water and grazing resources.
- Escalation of herder-farmer tensions, often along ethnic lines,
Historical land laws and colonial-era restrictions on nomadic land ownership have exacerbated these conflicts. Cattle rustling has become more prevalent and economically destabilizing. These dynamics reinforce Mali’s conflict economy and fuel further insecurity.
Displacement and the Humanitarian Fallout:
Displacement, both climate and conflict-induced, is rising in Mali. Since 2008, over 1.5 million people have been displaced internally.
- Flash floods, droughts, and poor climate adaptation strategies (e.g., irrigation or dam construction) disrupt local livelihoods and displace communities.
- Conflict-related violence forces many to flee to urban centres or neighbouring states, often marked by limited resources, health insecurity, gender-based violence, and lack of education for children.
Moreover, displacement exacerbates urban fragility, increasing competition over land and public services and heightening the potential for new cycles of tension.
Trapped Populations and the Crisis of Immobility:
Not all Malians can migrate. Many—especially those in low-income or marginalized groups—remain trapped in high-risk zones. Lack of financial means, compounded by gender norms and systemic barriers, limits their ability to move or adapt.
- Women, in particular, face intersecting challenges: they are less likely to migrate independently and are often left to manage households and climate-related burdens.
- While in some cases, they take on male-designated roles like in small-scale charcoal production or forest management, they continue to face systemic barriers to land, finance, and technology.
This immobility exacerbates exposure to climate hazards and reinforces cycles of poverty and insecurity.
Moving Forward: Integrating Climate Adaptation with Peacebuilding
The CSPA for Mali underscores the deeply interconnected nature of climate change, conflict, and mobility. Climate-induced livelihood stress, shifting migration patterns, rising intercommunal tensions, and systemic inequalities collectively shape a volatile security environment. Addressing these multifaceted challenges requires conflict-sensitive climate adaptation, improved migration governance, gender-responsive planning, and investment in sustainable livelihoods. Only through integrated, locally grounded strategies can the compounded risks to peace, security, and human wellbeing in Mali be mitigated.
This publication is based on extracts from a fact sheet written by Thea Synnestvedt, Charlotte Penel, Carolina Sarzana, Sokhna Ramatoulaye Cisse and Ignacio Madurga-Lopez, February 2025. To read the full fact sheet along with all of its findings, follow the link here.
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