Report published by the Met Office , December 2024.
Southeast Asia is already experiencing climate change impacts, which are projected to intensify by the 2050s. Rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and sea level rise will exacerbate existing socio-economic vulnerabilities, making climate-resilient development crucial. This report by Met Office identifies seven key areas of risk—agriculture and food security, water resources, health, infrastructure, energy, environment, and the blue economy—where climate change will have significant and interconnected effects.
Climate Trends and Projections
The region has warmed by 0.5°C since 1980, and temperatures could rise by 1.1°C under a medium emissions scenario and up to 3.5°C under high emissions by the 2050s. Heatwaves are expected to become more intense, and rainfall patterns will shift, with some areas experiencing increased annual rainfall while others will see prolonged drying trends. Coastal regions face rising sea surface temperatures, acidification, and stronger typhoons, with sea levels expected to rise by 0.2–0.3m. These climate shifts will compound existing challenges, placing additional strain on resources, economies, and livelihoods.
Key Climate Risks
The effects of climate change will not occur in isolation; rather, they will interact and reinforce vulnerabilities across multiple sectors.
- Agriculture and Food Security will be directly impacted by higher temperatures, extreme weather, and changing precipitation patterns. Rice yields, a staple for the region, are projected to decline by 3–10%, particularly in Cambodia, Myanmar, and Vietnam. Rising temperatures and flooding will also disrupt labor capacity, reduce agricultural productivity, and increase food price volatility, exacerbating food insecurity, especially for low-income populations. While aquaculture has grown rapidly as an alternative, climate-related threats such as storm surges and rising sea temperatures could make 30% of aquaculture areas unsuitable by 2050-2070.
- Water Resources will face increasing variability, making management more difficult. While Southeast Asia has abundant freshwater, extreme weather events will heighten the risk of both floods and droughts. In the Mekong Basin, home to 100 million people, fluctuating river flows will threaten agriculture, hydropower, and delta stability. In urban areas, flooding and poor sanitation infrastructure will degrade water quality, leading to greater health risks.
- Health Risks will rise as extreme heat, air pollution, and waterborne diseases become more prevalent. Continental Southeast Asia is expected to experience some of the world’s highest heat-related mortality rates, with vulnerable populations—including the elderly, pregnant women, and manual laborers—most at risk. Peat fires and transboundary haze will exacerbate respiratory illnesses, while increased flooding and unsafe water sources will drive higher rates of undernutrition and diarrheal diseases, particularly in Timor-Leste, Indonesia, and Lao PDR.
- Infrastructure and Urban Settlements will be increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, particularly in rapidly growing cities. Over 50% of the region’s population now lives in urban areas, with that figure expected to exceed 60% by 2050. Informal settlements in Myanmar, the Philippines, and Indonesia, which already lack adequate infrastructure, will face heightened risks from flooding and extreme heat. Coastal cities such as Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, and Yangon will be particularly exposed to sea level rise and storm surges, putting millions at risk. Additionally, transport networks, ports, and electricity grids will be disrupted by extreme weather, leading to economic losses and increased repair costs.
- Energy Security will be affected by rising demand and climate-induced disruptions. Electricity consumption is projected to rise by 250% by the 2050s, driven largely by increased demand for cooling. Hydropower, a critical energy source in the Mekong region, will face reduced reliability due to changing river flows, while thermal power plants will struggle with water shortages. Expanding renewable energy sources such as solar and wind will be essential, but these too face risks from extreme weather events, requiring improved infrastructure resilience.
- Environmental Pressures will intensify due to deforestation, habitat loss, and biodiversity decline. Southeast Asia’s tropical forests, home to some of the world’s richest biodiversity, are under threat from agricultural expansion and climate-driven habitat shifts. Rising temperatures will push species to higher altitudes, increasing extinction risks. Forest fires and peatland degradation in Indonesia and Malaysia will contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, further exacerbating climate change. While conservation efforts and nature-based solutions are gaining attention, their implementation remains slow and fragmented.
- The Blue Economy, which supports millions of livelihoods through fisheries, marine tourism, and coastal industries, is at risk from overfishing, habitat destruction, and climate change. Coral reefs in the Coral Triangle—a biodiversity hotspot off the coasts of the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia—are already experiencing bleaching due to rising sea temperatures. Mangroves and seagrass meadows, which provide crucial coastal protection and carbon storage, are being degraded by sea level rise and human activities. Additionally, fishery potential in Indonesia is expected to decline by 13-29% by the 2050s, threatening food security and economic stability for millions who depend on marine resources.
These challenges demand coordinated and forward-thinking policy measures to ensure sustainable development. Adaptation and mitigation efforts, including improved infrastructure, better resource management, and climate-resilient policies, will be critical to safeguarding the region’s future.
These are extracts from a report published by the Met Office in collaboration with ODI Global, December 2024. The full report and it's key findings can be accessed via the link here.