Is the EU prepared?
Recent weeks have borne witness to tragedy and destruction on a grand scale. The summer season in Europe concluded with severe forest fires in the Balkans, and has now given way to erratic and intense rainfall that has caused severe flooding in Central Europe and most devastatingly in Spain where hundreds are presumed dead, and recovery efforts are still underway. The scale of the response has truly been astounding, necessitating the largest peacetime deployment of military units in modern Spanish history as emergency response units have been overwhelmed, highlighting an increased reliance on the military for disaster response. The Spanish government faced fierce criticism for not warning and responding in time. The deployment of the Spanish military, while necessary, takes away attention from other military needs. The changing security dynamic of Europe risks overextending its resources, preventing it from responding decisively to emerging disasters.
Europe is confronted with cascading disasters that magnify one another and stretch the resources and capabilities of civilian and military authorities. In reaction to these developments, the European Commission requested in March the creation of a report on how to strengthen Europe’s civilian and military preparedness and readiness. The aim of this is to review the existing disaster response structure of the EU and assess to what degree they are sufficient for a changing security landscape in Europe. The report introduced last month is now advocating for an overhaul of the EU’s crisis and disaster response mechanisms. It mentions climate change 45 times and highlights the implications of the climate-security nexus for stability in Europe. It considers climate change not just a risk in its own right, but rather an aggravating factor that can magnify the intensity of other crises, risking spillover and putting additional stress on resources and capabilities.
The central argument in the report is that Europe is not prepared for the scale of threats that it currently faces - from climate change and cyber-attacks to hybrid warfare used by states such as Russia. It argues that the EU must institute a comprehensive risk assessment covering all sectors of society. For in as much as the risks the EU faces are multisectoral and self-reinforcing, so too must the EU’s response improve to address them. The report suggests implementing a Preparedness Union Strategy (first proposed by Finland in March) to identify gaps and potential for further cooperation and information-sharing among Member States. Such a strategy would also be aimed at introducing joint standards for preparedness among EU countries and introduce EU comprehensive preparedness exercises to improve resilience.
The report also suggests - among other recommendations - expanding the capabilities and mandate of the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) to turn it into a new hub for cross-border crises and to improve the efficiency of responses. The ERCC already serves a critical role in sharing information among Member States and coordinating the response of pooled resources and manpower. EU member states frequently provide assistance to others in need. The report also recommends adjusting solidarity clause thresholds in the EU to allow for earlier reactions or requests of aid from Member States. This will be critical considering how rapidly we have seen disasters such as forest fires and torrential rainstorms evolve. The report also cautions against siloing, encouraging further collaboration with the private sector and other multilateral institutions such as NATO to strengthen resilience across Europe.
But do the proposed changes go far enough, and do they give sufficient agency to European institutions and mechanisms to act? What is certain is that Europe must move beyond simply reacting to these emerging disasters if it is to retain any agency as a global actor. The report by Niinistö is a first step in this direction, but the devil is in the details, and implementation will require a refinement of articles 42.7 from the Treaty of the European Union and 222 from the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, as well as an increase in the funding allocation to these centres and mechanisms. In the coming years, the EU will have to commit itself to closer integration and reform if it is to fulfil the goals it has set itself and to ensure resilience across all societal sectors of Member States. The challenge will be how the EU deals with preparedness and responses and if it can achieve buy-in from the various member states. The EU is arguably not ready to face these challenges now, but the report sets out a blueprint for how it can become a stronger and more confident security provider.
This article was authored by Emil Marc Havstrup a researcher with the Planetary Security Initiative.