Clingendael Alert, February 2025.
Donald Trump’s proposal of tying US military aid for Ukraine to gaining access to its minerals is but the latest in a series of statements that have placed a magnifying glass on resource powerplay. President Trump reiterated his frustration about the US providing more military support to Ukraine than European allies, claiming that Washington should receive something in return: namely, critical raw materials (CRM), which are vital for high-tech industries.
Indeed, Ukraine’s CRM reserves, partially located in Russian-occupied territory, are considered to be a strategic asset. However, they can also be a liability, since natural resources can turn into a ‘curse’. If controlled and exploited by rich elites or foreign entities, socio-political conflicts may emerge, further adding to the instability the country is already facing due to the war. While Trump’s frequently polemic statements are increasingly difficult to disentangle—whether they are mere provocations or genuine policy positions—, his latest proposal should prompt discussions on the broader risk of resource exploitation by external actors, including the EU.
This Alert argues why trying to grab Ukraine’s minerals is a recipe for further instability. It discusses how Ukraine itself has brought up its mineral wealth as a bargaining chip, the ‘resource curse’ risk this entails, and how CRM could instead benefit Ukraine’s long-term development. For this, Europe should support a build-up of CRM-related value chains within Ukraine; that is, not only extract minerals for exports but develop local processing and manufacturing capacities, e.g. for batteries or weapon systems. As part of the EU accession process, focussing on local value creation would also support the implementation of EU policies on transparency, due diligence and good governance.
This is the introduction to the Clingendael Alert written by Hannah Lentschig and Louise van Schaik. The full article can be found here.
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