Concepts, strategies and partnerships

At the start of each academic year, the Faculty of Military Sciences (FMS) at the Netherlands Defence Academy releases the Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies (NL ARMS), presenting a segment of its research activities centered around an urgent theme. Climate change and the associated energy transition stand as prominent among these urgent themes, touching our society daily and demanding comprehensive examination due to their multifaceted scientific nature.

Somalia is one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, in part because of the enduring effects of over three decades of violent conflict. From mid 2021 to early 2023 Somalia experienced its most severe drought on record. At the height of the drought, in August 2022, clan militias and the Somali Armed Forces launched operations against the armed group Al-Shabab in areas of south-central Somalia that have little to no government presence and very limited capacity to cope with the effects of drought.

Lessons for policy and development practice

Historically, the relationship between climate change and conflict has primarily been framed as a threat multiplier, whereby climate change exacerbates conflict risk through different pathways that link ecological shocks with social, cultural, and political risks. However, focusing solely on how climate change can affect conflict is limiting, and fails to highlight the many ways in which conflict can increase vulnerability to climate change by decreasing adaptive capacity.

Citizens in many countries in Europe are increasingly concerned by global geopolitical developments and that a feeling of insecurity is on the rise. Consequently, discussions in Europe today focus on concepts and solutions aiming at stabilisation, “de-risking” and reducing dependencies as well as at increasing security through “resilience” and “strategic autonomy”.

Narratives, challenges and opportunities

The worsening impacts of climate change on the world’s most vulnerable people place the management of climate and conflict risk squarely within the humanitarian domain. The ways in which humanitarian actors approach these challenges matter, both for the effectiveness of emergency response and for broader climate action in fragile and conflict-affected situations.

The speed and complexity of climate challenges today pose multifarious risks to societal stability, especially those pertaining to peace and conflict. These risks are multidimensional, for they can amplify socio-economic tensions, provoke competition over resources, or accentuate national rivalries affecting international order – thus, carrying vast security implications. The Indo-pacific region is particularly vulnerable to these climate-related security risks considering the range of conventional and unconventional challenges faced. 

Examining Nationally Defined Contributions, Targets, and Gaps in Wealthy Versus Middle-Income States

A Region on the Frontlines of Climate Change

As climate change and policy responses grow more intense, prominent, and high-stakes, opportunities will grow for state and non-state actors to spread mis- and disinformation. These mis- and disinformation challenges go beyond climate denialism, and are present across the breadth of climate security risks. These risks comprise the physical impacts of climate disasters, cascading socio political impacts of climate change, and backlash or unintended consequences from climate policies themselves.

Livelihoods are central to the relationship between climate change and conflict. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns negatively affect household income sources and food supply. The lack of alternative livelihood options, coupled with political, social and economic strife, may lead people to resort to violence to safeguard their means of survival.