Opportunities and limitations
Areas beyond government control constitute a highly diverse subgroup of fragile and conflict-affected settings. As a result of conflict and weak governance, many of these areas have become more vulnerable to climate change. Their communities have been left with limited capacity to respond to changing climatic conditions and extreme weather events. These settings pose unique challenges for external engagement and have, therefore, long been overlooked in adaptation efforts.
As well as being difficult to access and unsafe, these areas present risks related to corruption, damage and theft of belongings, and deliberate or accidental destruction of property. Moreover, the volatile and unpredictable nature of these areas means that violence can erupt at any time, interrupting project implementation and leading to increased costs and extended timelines. Furthermore, international development finance for climate action typically flows through national government institutions and many inter national activities require government approval.
- Adaptation needs and challenges in conflict-affected contexts: development actors with adaptation expertise are crucial to identifying and implementing the measures most likely to increase long-term climate-related resilience.
- Diversity in areas beyond government control: understanding the possibilities for climate adaptation in a particular context requires knowledge of the different types of conflict and patterns of violent conflict, the extent of wartime governance and the diversity of non state armed groups.
- Diversity in climate change adaptation actions: this paper identifies four aspects that influence the suitability of a measure for implementation in or near conflict-affected areas: (a) the extent to which preparatory work for or implementation of the measure can be conducted outside the conflict-affected area; (b) the vulnerability of the measure to destruction or theft; (c) the compatibility of the measure with local interests, capacities and resources; and (d) the degree to which the measure results in a redistribution of resources and vulnerabilities or benefits particular groups in society.
The paper then suggests a set of four guiding questions that may be helpful in identifying the most suitable climate change adaptation measures for a particular context:
- What is the type and level of conflict, and which areas can safely be accessed?
- What is the level of governance, and who governs with what interests?
- What is the relationship between the governing non-state armed groups and communities?
- What is the risk of non-state armed groups benefiting from climate adaptation projects?
Read the full paper by Dr Karen Meijer and Ann-Sophie Böhle, published by SIPRI in September 2024 through the link here.