Paper by the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies (DKI APCSS), Octobre 2024.
This paper describes the results of a foresight tabletop exercise looking at the security implications of climate change in Big Ocean Small State (BOSS) islands in the Indian Ocean Region. As these nations face rising temperatures, sea level rise, and increasing climate variability, their adaptive capacity is crucial to achieving the best possible outcomes.
The complexities of modern crises present a formidable challenge for national security decision-makers, who often face high-pressure situations with limited or rapidly changing information and high pressure from stakeholders. In these volatile environments, rapid and evidence-based decision making is needed, and preparedness is critical. A deep understanding of interconnected systems, collaborative thinking, and the application of analytical tools are essential for anticipating and managing the cascading effects of potential threats.
The Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies (DKI APCSS) plays a pivotal role in fostering these capabilities through workshops and educational initiatives. Among which the “Building Climate Resilience in Small Island Developing States: Partnerships for Adaptation in the Indian Ocean Region,” workshop took place for four days in September 2024, in the Maldives. The workshop convened 28 security professionals and subject matter experts from BOSS islands across the Indian Ocean region, India, France, Germany, and the United States.
The event featured an integral foresight-based tabletop exercise, focused on exploring future scenarios shaped by varying degrees of climate change and regional adaptive capacity. Through this exercise, participants identified 34 policy recommendations that focus on whole-of society capacity building; risk assessments, strategies, and plans; governance and security sector reforms; international cooperation; resilient infrastructure; financial mechanisms; and ecosystem-based management.
The resulting Climate Resilience Toolkit can assist policymakers in small island nations as they try to adapt to and mitigate the worst impacts of climate change and identify opportunities for sustainable development and long-term security.
These are extracts from the paper ‘A Climate Resilience Toolkit for Security Practitioners and National Policy Recommendations for Big Ocean Small State (BOSS) Islands’ by D. Canyon, S. Tekwani, L. Connel and S. Mullins from the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies (DKI APCSS), C. Youdon from the National Maritime Foundation of India, M. Tarer from the Indian Ocean Rim Association and M Sudan, independent researcher. It summarises the results of exercises from a DKI APCSS workshop focussed on the implications of climate change in Big Ocean Small State (BOSS) islands in the Indian Ocean Region. The full paper can be accessed through the link here.