Sixteen years after the first United Brief Points Nations Security Council debate on climate change and security, there is still no agreement on how the Council should engage with the issue. A major reason for the stalemate is enduring claims by a minority of Council members that there is little scientific foundation for connecting climate change with security concerns. Countering this view, we show that the scientific literature offers ample evidence that climate change can constitute a real threat to international peace and security. Establishing a shared understanding of the state of science would be an important step in facilitating an explicit climate security agenda in the Security Council.
Brief Points
- The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) offers an unparalleled synthesis of scientific evidence on climate-conflict connections.
- AR6 concludes that climate hazards contribute to conflict risk, and conflict contributes to climate change vulnerability.
- Although the average climate effect on conflict is judged to be modest at present, climate change is expected to become a more prominent driver of conflict in the future.
- Concerted actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change can be beneficial for peace and security.
- Poorly managed responses to climate change can accentuate security risks.
This is an excerpt from the full policy brief that has been published by PRIO. The full policy brief can be found here.
Authored by Halvard Buhaug, Cedric de Coning and Nina von Uexkull.