Revisiting the Commission on Climate Change and Development in the polycrisis context

During the first decades of climate policy discourse and multilateral negotiations, most attention was given to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation took a back seat and focused mostly on identifying the urgent and immediate needs of developing countries. There were limited efforts to integrate mitigation, adaptation, disaster risk reduction and development more generally.

In April 2024 the Climate Adapt website of the European Union published a publicly available tool to visualize the impacts of climate change in Europe. This tool is part of the EU efforts to share adaptation knowledge for a climate resilient continent, and shows the future impacts that different drivers will have depending on the development of the climate crisis.

Global militaries are some of the largest carbon polluters on the planet. Yet we still know very little about their overall contribution to climate change. Militaries generally do not report their emissions to international climate bodies. If they do, their reporting is often inadequate, leaving significant gaps in accounting. This collection of high-quality research seeks to fill the gap and open the ’black box’ on military emissions. Here are some of the messages conveyed by the paper on different clusters:

Russia’s war in Ukraine has caused extensive devastation, including the destruction or damage of homes, schools, hospitals, and other critical public facilities, leaving citizens without essential resources such as water, electricity, and healthcare. Beside causing damage to the natural environment of Ukraine, this war affects the global climate due to the release of significant amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere. With the war ongoing, GHG emissions have continued to grow, as is shown is the figure below.

The Nile Delta, the cradle of historical, agricultural, and cultural heritage for Egypt, is on the cusp of an ecological disaster largely driven by climate change. The densely populated Delta is home to half of Egypt’s population, close to 50 million people. The demographic densification of the region underpins not only the socioeconomic fabric of Egypt but also previews the scale at which climate change could propagate human and economic devastation.

PSI is pleased to launch a new, updated map of climate security practices around the world. Over the past two decades, climate security research has significantly advanced in understanding and addressing the security risks posed by climate change. Although practical action remains partially limited, there is considerable potential for growth. Consequently, there is increasing interest from the development, diplomacy, and defence sectors to become more involved in this area.

The 2022 invasion of Ukraine shocked Europe out of its security slumber. Suddenly, European Union member states became painfully aware of Europe’s security risks and dependencies.

Concepts, strategies and partnerships

At the start of each academic year, the Faculty of Military Sciences (FMS) at the Netherlands Defence Academy releases the Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies (NL ARMS), presenting a segment of its research activities centered around an urgent theme. Climate change and the associated energy transition stand as prominent among these urgent themes, touching our society daily and demanding comprehensive examination due to their multifaceted scientific nature.

Somalia is one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, in part because of the enduring effects of over three decades of violent conflict. From mid 2021 to early 2023 Somalia experienced its most severe drought on record. At the height of the drought, in August 2022, clan militias and the Somali Armed Forces launched operations against the armed group Al-Shabab in areas of south-central Somalia that have little to no government presence and very limited capacity to cope with the effects of drought.

Lessons for policy and development practice

Historically, the relationship between climate change and conflict has primarily been framed as a threat multiplier, whereby climate change exacerbates conflict risk through different pathways that link ecological shocks with social, cultural, and political risks. However, focusing solely on how climate change can affect conflict is limiting, and fails to highlight the many ways in which conflict can increase vulnerability to climate change by decreasing adaptive capacity.